Efficient Recursions for General Factorisable Models

Let n S-valued categorical variables be jointly distributed according to a distribution known only up to an unknown normalising constant. For an unnormalised joint likelihood expressible as a product of factors, we give an algebraic recursion which can be used for computing the normalising constant and other summations. A saving in computation is achieved when each factor contains a lagged subset of the components combining in the joint distribution, with maximum computational efficiency as the subsets attain their minimum size. If each subset contains at most r+1 of the n components in the joint distribution, we term this a lag-r model, whose normalising constant can be computed using a forward recursion in O(Sr+1) computations, as opposed to O(Sn) for the direct computation. We show how a lag-r model represents a Markov random field and allows a neighbourhood structure to be related to the unnormalised joint likelihood. We illustrate the method by showing how the normalising constant of the Ising or autologistic model can be computed

TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY: REDUCING TRANS FAT IN THE DIET

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Bayesian models for the determination of resonant frequencies in a DI diesel engine

A time series method for the determination of combustion chamber resonant frequencies is outlined. This technique employs the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to infer parameters in a chosen model of the data. The development of the model is included and the resonant frequency is characterised as a function of time. Potential applications for cycle-by-cycle analysis are discussed and the bulk temperature of the gas and the trapped mass in the combustion chamber are evaluated as a function of time from resonant frequency information

Variational bayes for estimating the parameters of a hidden Potts model

Hidden Markov random field models provide an appealing representation of images and other spatial problems. The drawback is that inference is not straightforward for these models as the normalisation constant for the likelihood is generally intractable except for very small observation sets. Variational methods are an emerging tool for Bayesian inference and they have already been successfully applied in other contexts. Focusing on the particular case of a hidden Potts model with Gaussian noise, we show how variational Bayesian methods can be applied to hidden Markov random field inference. To tackle the obstacle of the intractable normalising constant for the likelihood, we explore alternative estimation approaches for incorporation into the variational Bayes algorithm. We consider a pseudo-likelihood approach as well as the more recent reduced dependence approximation of the normalisation constant. To illustrate the effectiveness of these approaches we present empirical results from the analysis of simulated datasets. We also analyse a real dataset and compare results with those of previous analyses as well as those obtained from the recently developed auxiliary variable MCMC method and the recursive MCMC method. Our results show that the variational Bayesian analyses can be carried out much faster than the MCMC analyses and produce good estimates of model parameters. We also found that the reduced dependence approximation of the normalisation constant outperformed the pseudo-likelihood approximation in our analysis of real and synthetic datasets

The effects of differing batter levels upon enzymatically and mechanically tenderized pork and beef steaks

Beef round and pork loin steaks were machanically and enzymatically tenderized and treated with either 0, 5, 10, 15, or 20 percent batter levels. Steaks were cooked by open grill and deep fat frying methods. Chemical composition was determined by proximate analysis and organoleptic characteristics evaluated by taste panelists. Both beef and pork steaks tended to have higher cooking losses as battering levels were increased; however, steaks of both species with no coating had the greatest cooking losses. Little variation of either fat or ash content was observed in un-cooked and cooked steaks of both species. Moisture content generally increased with increases in battering level in both cooked and uncooked steaks of both species. Water absorp-tion by vegetable gums in the batter apparently contributed to water re-tention in the cooked steaks of both species. Protein content was highest in the unbattered steaks of both species when compared to all levels of battering. The addition of high carbohydrate-low protein batters to steaks apparently was responsible for lower protein percentages in battered steaks. Trends of flavor and tenderness scores were similar to those of overall preference scores for both species. The appearance scores of cooked and uncooked steaks of both species showed no specific trends. Overall preference scores of both grilled and deep fat fried beef steaks were significantly higher (P \u3c .05) for battered steaks than for non-battered steaks. No differences were observed among steaks receiving different levels of batter. Grilled pork loin steaks with the 15 percent level of battering received a significantly higher overall preference score than other batter coated steaks. All batter levels of deep fat fried loin steaks were significantly higher (P \u3c .05) in preference score than unbattered steaks. Under the conditions of this study, battering of mechanically and enzymatically tenderized beef and pork steaks from cow and sow carcasses appears to offer an acceptable method of improving consumer acceptability of these lower grade meats

Potential Terrorist Uses of Highway-Borne Hazardous Materials, MTI Report 09-03

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has requested that the Mineta Transportation Institutes National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (MTI NTSCOE) provide any research it has or insights it can provide on the security risks created by the highway transportation of hazardous materials. This request was submitted to MTI/NSTC as a National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. In response, MTI/NTSC reviewed and revised research performed in 2007 and 2008 and assembled a small team of terrorism and emergency-response experts, led by Center Director Brian Michael Jenkins, to report on the risks of terrorists using highway shipments of flammable liquids (e.g., gasoline tankers) to cause casualties anywhere, and ways to reduce those risks. This report has been provided to DHS. The teams first focus was on surface transportation targets, including highway infrastructure, and also public transportation stations. As a full understanding of these materials, and their use against various targets became revealed, the team shifted with urgency to the far more plentiful targets outside of surface transportation where people gather and can be killed or injured. However, the team is concerned to return to the top of the use of these materials against public transit stations and recommends it as a separate subject for urgent research

The American military expedition against Quebec, September 19, 1775 to January 1, 1776

The example of the 1775 Quebec Expedition draws clearly into focus the odds against which the American colonies struggled and the miracle of their success

Humpback and Fin Whaling in the Gulf of Maine from 1800 to 1918

The history of whaling in the Gulf of Maine was reviewed primarily to estimate removals of humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, especially during the 19th century. In the decades from 1800 to 1860, whaling effort consisted of a few localized, small-scale, shore-based enterprises on the coast of Maine and Cape Cod, Mass. Provincetown and Nantucket schooners occasionally conducted short cruises for humpback whales in New England waters. With the development of bomb-lance technology at mid century, the ease of killing humpback whales and fin whales, Balaenoptera physalus, increased. As a result, by the 1870’s there was considerable local interest in hunting rorquals (baleen whales in the family Balaenopteridae, which include the humpback and fin whales) in the Gulf of Maine. A few schooners were specially outfitted to take rorquals in the late 1870’s and 1880’s although their combined annual take was probably no more than a few tens of whales. Also in about 1880, fishing steamers began to be used to hunt whales in the Gulf of Maine. This steamer fishery grew to include about five vessels regularly engaged in whaling by the mid 1880’s but dwindled to only one vessel by the end of the decade. Fin whales constituted at least half of the catch, which exceeded 100 animals in some years. In the late 1880’s and thereafter, few whales were taken by whaling vessels in the Gulf of Maine

Misidentification subtype of alzheimer's disease psychosis predicts a faster cognitive decline

The presence of psychosis is associated with more rapid decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD), but the impact of paranoid (persecutory delusions) and misidentification (misperceptions and/or hallucinations) subtypes of psychosis on the speed of decline in AD is still unclear. Here we analysed data on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)2 participants with late mild cognitive impairment or AD and we described individual trajectories of Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-cog) scores using a semi-mechanistic, logistic model, with a mixed effects based approach, which accounted for drop-out, and adjusted for baseline Mini Mental State Examination scores. The covariate model included psychosis subtypes, age, gender, education, medications and Apo-e ε4 genotype. We found that ADAS-cog rate of increase was doubled in misidentification (βr,misid_subtype =0.63, p=0.031) and mixed (both subtypes) ((βr,mixed_subtype =0.70, p=0.003) compared to non-psychotic (or paranoid) subjects suggesting that the misidentification subtype may represent a distinct AD sub-phenotype associated with an accelerated pathological process. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved